The
United States continues to these reasons in imposing sanctions on Iran
and covert operations, while Iran continues to build its secret in Iraq
and the region. Both will try to convince the region that its strength will be the largest within a year. And
the region is uncertainty about the parties, but are forced to live
with one of them, or test the constant of intent, which is the future of
the worrying of all, every party wants to maximize his power to make a
psychological impact bulk without crossing the red line, which could
push the other to take firm action. Iran
has expressed interest in trying to close the Strait of Hormuz and the
intention to continue to develop nuclear weapons, but did not cross the
red line to close the Strait of actual or detonate a nuclear weapon. And
the United States put pressure on Iran and moved its troops in the
region, but did not cross the red line to start military operations, and
thus avoids Both parties ignite a movement of non-acceptable than the
other.
The problem of the United States is that the status quo will work against its interests in the end, if the Assad regime survived and if the situation continues to deteriorate in Iraq in the current, then Iran will be able to create a fact which will form the region. And the United States does not have a broad coalition or actor who can count it or buildup in the event of war. She has only Israel, and Israel is concerned, such as the United States from any military action, they do not want to see the strikes failed and does not want more instability in the Arab world, despite all the rhetoric firearms, but that Israel hands are weak with respect to Iran, and the only advantage in the hand the U.S. as the strongest, but also in relative terms. For the United States, preventing expansion of Alnfozh Iran is a top priority, Iraq will become a front difficult to stop the Iranian expansion, so Syria is very important now, Assad seems weak, and replace the government of Sunni will reduce but will not destroy the sphere of influence of Iran, it will be setback for Iran, the United States is eager strongly to cause harm to Iran, but the problem is that the United States can not be seen as a direct part in regime change in Syria, and Assad is not a weak expected until now, Syria is the place where it can the United States to work in order to reduce the influence of Iran without crossing the Iranian Red Line.
Friedman says that the natural outcome of a situation like that and you can not afford it does not Iran nor the United States to cross the red line to the other, because the consequences will be greater than that would be unbearable for both types of negotiations toward a compromise solution long term. If Leaving ideology aside, the fact that the United States is negotiating with the "axis of evil" or that Iran is negotiating with the Great Satan, it would be difficult to promote it to their people, the problem in this is that it is difficult to see what we can each make to the other. What Iran wants a dominant position in the region and re-define how oil revenues are allocated and distributed makes more reliable the United States on Iran. The United States wants Iran's sphere of influence do not build, but on the other hand remain within its borders can cost Iran a historic opportunity to assert its claims, which has long historical and worked for it.
So in the end we will find ourselves in the position of each party wants to force the other to take drastic steps, but there is no party of them can be included in the broad consensus with the other. This is what makes the situation dangerous. When the key issues in imminent danger, each party is authorized to hurt the other party if the depth of pressure on him, and there is no party to the position which can negotiate solutions expanded, so the game Chess will continue long-term. In the game of chess that, the possibility of a miscalculation, or trick the other party thinking that errors in the move, Ward strongly.
Also, Europe and China Ieidan define the way the world works now, as some of them said recently that the kingdoms are now on oil, and a lot of oil comes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may be able or not able to close the Strait, but in any case, it will settle in a large European response to the crisis and China's Strait of Hormuz, which will be the center of global attention in the coming period.
Conclusion:
Clear from the analysis presented by George Friedman, the crisis of the Strait of Hormuz, with many of the parties and hubs, and it is not just the Strait of navigation opens or closes; but the issue of the growing influence of a country that has ambitions of sectarian and ethnic Persian, and that the risk extends from western Afghanistan to the Mediterranean, the Department of the influence of massive can create new facts on the ground, but can remove it from the map what has come to be defined as "the Arab World", by deducting the northern part of it to fall into Iran's orbit, after the separation of South Sudan and entering with the Horn of Africa in the other department, including Somalia, which has was going on in the orbit of other powers such as Ethiopia and Kenya.
Therefore, the key to the solution to that dilemma does not start from the Strait of Hormuz, but it starts from the bridge vacancy and Homs where the strongholds of the Syrian army free; must be on the Arab countries to begin to support the no-fly zone and the establishment of buffer zones for civilians Sunnis, who massacred there by the Alnasirien, from for the work of a buffer zone to cut the Shiite Crescent and prevent it from forming, and access to southern Lebanon, and cooperate with the Turkish state in this area; where she is also her major interest in nail Iranian Valnfoz Iranian doctrinal Persian, and Turkish influence will not be an opponent of the Arab influence because it is Sunni and aims to consensus and cooperation, not influence his expansionist goals of geography or ideology.
The Arab countries should put more power in the circuit of Iraq which is expected to be intensifying in the coming period with the completion of a U.S. withdrawal and consider Iran as an open forum for the influence of the displacement of Shiites to and considered a strategic depth bits and Tehran provinces are Sunnis in western Iraq are on the other hand the buffer in front of Shiite influence and contact with Syria, so the goal of Iran will burn the land buffer and then subjected either to Iranian influence, direct or influence the Iraqi government and its militias, then the Arab countries that are expanding the buffer zones and work to calm Iraq's political and support Sunni parties and the reconstruction of their areas and the delivery of messages to the Iraqi government that the playing field must be political, not ethnic sectarian militias with the support of home and abroad.
The Strait of Hormuz, it will be difficult for Tehran to take the decision to close, but if you have an American strike, but the Gulf states to find messages to Tehran that it must co-existence between the two sides without attempts to impose influence and domination, and that Arab states should increase its naval and air to match the power Iran, as well as continuing to work on the Confederate Gulf and activating systems common security for the Gulf States, while continuing to deliver messages that Gulf states will find obliged to have nuclear weapons if it acquired Tehran, while working to overthrow the Tehran regime with Western powers if it continues to threaten the national security the Gulf, Iranian regime the current is in the end, in the interest of Western and Israeli, marketing strategy essential to Israel is "pulling parties" in order to keep everyone responsible; Gulf is stretched eastward to Iran Feinsgl support for the Palestinian cause and against Israel, as happened in 1973 and the win is also the arms industry of Western , and Egypt are stretching south to the headwaters of the Nile and Israel now plays with the southern Sudan from Egypt in order to fill itself with water and the cause of her life, and after the crash of Iraq and Syria, Assad has not and will not to fight Israel.
The main enemy of the Arab nation has been and will the Zionist entity until its removal, and what comes from the threat of the eastern front is because of a radical regime and not the people of extreme exploits sectarianism to achieve the ambitions of historical Vasagat the system and return to live in the Gulf region will pave the way for a second time to stop for consideration in the east, and go back to look at the inside of the Arab nation and not outside, with the emergence of a revolutionary situation opens the door to the future direction of forming a new Islamic era.
The problem of the United States is that the status quo will work against its interests in the end, if the Assad regime survived and if the situation continues to deteriorate in Iraq in the current, then Iran will be able to create a fact which will form the region. And the United States does not have a broad coalition or actor who can count it or buildup in the event of war. She has only Israel, and Israel is concerned, such as the United States from any military action, they do not want to see the strikes failed and does not want more instability in the Arab world, despite all the rhetoric firearms, but that Israel hands are weak with respect to Iran, and the only advantage in the hand the U.S. as the strongest, but also in relative terms. For the United States, preventing expansion of Alnfozh Iran is a top priority, Iraq will become a front difficult to stop the Iranian expansion, so Syria is very important now, Assad seems weak, and replace the government of Sunni will reduce but will not destroy the sphere of influence of Iran, it will be setback for Iran, the United States is eager strongly to cause harm to Iran, but the problem is that the United States can not be seen as a direct part in regime change in Syria, and Assad is not a weak expected until now, Syria is the place where it can the United States to work in order to reduce the influence of Iran without crossing the Iranian Red Line.
Friedman says that the natural outcome of a situation like that and you can not afford it does not Iran nor the United States to cross the red line to the other, because the consequences will be greater than that would be unbearable for both types of negotiations toward a compromise solution long term. If Leaving ideology aside, the fact that the United States is negotiating with the "axis of evil" or that Iran is negotiating with the Great Satan, it would be difficult to promote it to their people, the problem in this is that it is difficult to see what we can each make to the other. What Iran wants a dominant position in the region and re-define how oil revenues are allocated and distributed makes more reliable the United States on Iran. The United States wants Iran's sphere of influence do not build, but on the other hand remain within its borders can cost Iran a historic opportunity to assert its claims, which has long historical and worked for it.
So in the end we will find ourselves in the position of each party wants to force the other to take drastic steps, but there is no party of them can be included in the broad consensus with the other. This is what makes the situation dangerous. When the key issues in imminent danger, each party is authorized to hurt the other party if the depth of pressure on him, and there is no party to the position which can negotiate solutions expanded, so the game Chess will continue long-term. In the game of chess that, the possibility of a miscalculation, or trick the other party thinking that errors in the move, Ward strongly.
Also, Europe and China Ieidan define the way the world works now, as some of them said recently that the kingdoms are now on oil, and a lot of oil comes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may be able or not able to close the Strait, but in any case, it will settle in a large European response to the crisis and China's Strait of Hormuz, which will be the center of global attention in the coming period.
Conclusion:
Clear from the analysis presented by George Friedman, the crisis of the Strait of Hormuz, with many of the parties and hubs, and it is not just the Strait of navigation opens or closes; but the issue of the growing influence of a country that has ambitions of sectarian and ethnic Persian, and that the risk extends from western Afghanistan to the Mediterranean, the Department of the influence of massive can create new facts on the ground, but can remove it from the map what has come to be defined as "the Arab World", by deducting the northern part of it to fall into Iran's orbit, after the separation of South Sudan and entering with the Horn of Africa in the other department, including Somalia, which has was going on in the orbit of other powers such as Ethiopia and Kenya.
Therefore, the key to the solution to that dilemma does not start from the Strait of Hormuz, but it starts from the bridge vacancy and Homs where the strongholds of the Syrian army free; must be on the Arab countries to begin to support the no-fly zone and the establishment of buffer zones for civilians Sunnis, who massacred there by the Alnasirien, from for the work of a buffer zone to cut the Shiite Crescent and prevent it from forming, and access to southern Lebanon, and cooperate with the Turkish state in this area; where she is also her major interest in nail Iranian Valnfoz Iranian doctrinal Persian, and Turkish influence will not be an opponent of the Arab influence because it is Sunni and aims to consensus and cooperation, not influence his expansionist goals of geography or ideology.
The Arab countries should put more power in the circuit of Iraq which is expected to be intensifying in the coming period with the completion of a U.S. withdrawal and consider Iran as an open forum for the influence of the displacement of Shiites to and considered a strategic depth bits and Tehran provinces are Sunnis in western Iraq are on the other hand the buffer in front of Shiite influence and contact with Syria, so the goal of Iran will burn the land buffer and then subjected either to Iranian influence, direct or influence the Iraqi government and its militias, then the Arab countries that are expanding the buffer zones and work to calm Iraq's political and support Sunni parties and the reconstruction of their areas and the delivery of messages to the Iraqi government that the playing field must be political, not ethnic sectarian militias with the support of home and abroad.
The Strait of Hormuz, it will be difficult for Tehran to take the decision to close, but if you have an American strike, but the Gulf states to find messages to Tehran that it must co-existence between the two sides without attempts to impose influence and domination, and that Arab states should increase its naval and air to match the power Iran, as well as continuing to work on the Confederate Gulf and activating systems common security for the Gulf States, while continuing to deliver messages that Gulf states will find obliged to have nuclear weapons if it acquired Tehran, while working to overthrow the Tehran regime with Western powers if it continues to threaten the national security the Gulf, Iranian regime the current is in the end, in the interest of Western and Israeli, marketing strategy essential to Israel is "pulling parties" in order to keep everyone responsible; Gulf is stretched eastward to Iran Feinsgl support for the Palestinian cause and against Israel, as happened in 1973 and the win is also the arms industry of Western , and Egypt are stretching south to the headwaters of the Nile and Israel now plays with the southern Sudan from Egypt in order to fill itself with water and the cause of her life, and after the crash of Iraq and Syria, Assad has not and will not to fight Israel.
The main enemy of the Arab nation has been and will the Zionist entity until its removal, and what comes from the threat of the eastern front is because of a radical regime and not the people of extreme exploits sectarianism to achieve the ambitions of historical Vasagat the system and return to live in the Gulf region will pave the way for a second time to stop for consideration in the east, and go back to look at the inside of the Arab nation and not outside, with the emergence of a revolutionary situation opens the door to the future direction of forming a new Islamic era.
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